Main page:


Web apps

for the

Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM)

Calculation of Paris-compatible emission paths and emission targets

The ESPM consists of two calculation steps:
(here is a brief background paper on the ESPM)

1.   Determination of a national budget.

2.   Derive plausible emission pathways that adhere to this budget.

web apps

emission paths: universal

budgets and emission paths: EU

national CO2 budgets:
all countries

web address

mobile version:

applicable to

any geographical or other unit


Calculation of Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets for all countries in the world.

which emissions

freely specifiable

all CO2 emissions
(including land-use change; LUC)

Which emissions are covered depends on the database used (EDGAR or EEA).

step 1:

The user must set the budget himself (see tools in the column on the far right as a possible support).

To derive a national CO2 budget from a predefined global CO2 budget,
a weighting model is offered that takes into account the country's share of the world population and of global emissions.

step 2:

To calculate the emission paths, the tools use the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (here is a brief description). These scenario types represent the entire range of plausible emission paths. Which scenario type makes sense in each case must be decided scientifically based on an overall climate policy view.

The national budgets determined in the first step can then be used in the universal web app or in the analogue universal Excel tool (see left column below) to derive plausible national emission paths.

Excel tools
with additional features; download from zenodo

Universal Excel tool - emission paths:

Step 1: The user must set the budget himself. The tools in the right-hand column can be used for this purpose.

Step 2: The tool uses the RM Scenario Types (see above).



Additional features e.g.:

  • Distribution of a global CO2 budget from 2016 instead of 2020.
  • Calculation of the implicit weighting of the population based on an NDC.

ESPM Excel tool - budgets and paths all countries:

Step 1: The tool uses the weighting model (see above) and the EDGAR database.

Step 2: The tool uses the RM Scenario Types (see above).


published papers
calculating Paris-compatible emission paths and targets

EU  /  Germany

Ein Bild, das Text enthält.

Automatisch generierte Beschreibung     

six largest emitters
Ein Bild, das Text enthält.

Automatisch generierte Beschreibung


 Note - web app for the Regensburg Model (converging per captia emissions):