Main page: www.save-the-climate.info

 

Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM)

Calculation of Paris-compatible emission paths and emission targets

The ESPM consists of two calculation steps:
(here is a brief background paper on the ESPM)

1.   Determination of a national budget.

2.   Derive plausible emission paths that adhere to this budget.

Overview of web apps, Excel tools and papers on ESPM

 

emission paths

EU:
CO2 budgets and emission paths

national CO2 budgets

web apps

https://paths.climate-calculator.info

https://eu.climate-calculator.info

http://national-budgets.climate-calculator.info

short version:

http://short.national-budgets.climate-calculator.info

applicable to

any geographical or other unit

EU

calculation of Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets for all countries in the world

which emissions

freely specifiable

all CO2 emissions
(including land-use change; LUC)

Which emissions are covered depends on the database used (EDGAR or EEA).

step 1: budget

The user must set the budget himself (see tools in the column on the far right as a possible support).

To derive a national CO2 budget from a predefined global CO2 budget,
a weighting model is offered that takes into account the country's share of the world population and of global emissions.

step 2: paths

To calculate the emission paths, the tools use the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (here is a brief description). These scenario types represent the entire range of plausible emission paths. Which scenario type makes sense in each case must be decided scientifically based on an overall climate policy view.

The web app also shows emission targets based on linear emission paths; particular for the six major emitters.

For more options in determining emission paths:

The national budgets determined in the first step can then be used in the paths web app or in the corresponding Excel tool (see left column below) to derive plausible national emission paths.

corresponding
Excel tools

with additional features; download from zenodo

 


Excel tool - emission paths:


Step 1 budget: The user must set the budget himself. The tools in the right-hand column can be used for this purpose.


Step 2 paths: The tool uses the RM Scenario Types (see above).


.

 

Step 1 budget: Excel tool - calculation of Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets for all countries of the world; see right column.

Step 2 paths: Excel tool - emission paths; see left column.

Excel tool - calculation of Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets for all countries in the world:

 

Additional features e.g.:

  • Distribution of a global CO2 budget from 2016 instead of 2020.
  • Calculation of the implicit weighting of the population based on an NDC.


ESPM Excel tool - budgets and paths all countries:

Step 1 budget: The tool uses the weighting model (see above) and the EDGAR database.

Step 2 paths: The tool uses the RM Scenario Types (see above).
last published papers

calculating Paris-compatible emission paths and targets

 

EU  /  Germany (in German)

Ein Bild, das Text enthält. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung     
six largest emitters (in English)
Ein Bild, das Text enthält. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung
web app
global paths

calculating Paris-compatible linear global emission paths